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取消利息税预期导致市场大跌
http://www.jrj.com  2007年06月26日 14:21  中国日报
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  中国日报6月26日报道 由于担心政府出台降低或取消利息税的政策,昨日股市下跌3.68%。

  十届人大常会会第28次会议于周日(24日)起召开,本次会议将就一系列法律进行表决,其中可能包括一项赋予国务院调整或取消利息税的权力。一旦利息税有所调整,必然会促使投资者更倾向于把资金储存在银行里而不是用于购买股票。

  据接近全国人大和中央政府的消息人士透露,对该提案的投资程序可能安排在本周五(29日),这也是本次常委会会期的最后一天。

  “如果政府被赋予了这一权力,我想它将把利息税从目前的20%降低到10%,”建银证券分析师李志昆(音译)说。他补充说,央行也可能同时将贷款利息提高18个基点。

  “市场上关于央行将提高(一年期)存款利息54个基点(至3.7%)的传言是没有根据的,”李志昆说,“我相信降低或调整利息税是一项近期可以预见的手段。”

  李志昆认为,取消利息税相当于加息76.5个基点。

  自上周五这一传言在市场上扩散开来以后,上证指数已经下跌了290点。

  上证指数昨日收于3941.08点,这是自6月12日以来首次收盘低于4000点。上周五,上证指数下跌了3.29%。

  据中国证券登记结算有限责任公司的统计显示,上周四新开A股股东账户数为160104户,这一近两月来的低点表明,从银行储蓄账户进入股市的散户资金可能在下降。

  已有投资者在退出股市,上海A股昨日成交量下降到1392亿元,这是自四月初以来的最低点,而上周五成交量为1655亿元。

  (By Zhang Ran)

  附:中国日报原文

Market plunges on fear of tax reduction
By Zhang Ran
Updated: 2007-06-26 06:31

Speculation that the government will reduce or remove the tax on interest income yesterday caused the stock market to plummet 3.68 percent.

The 28th session of the Standing Committee of the National People´s Congress (NPC), which has been in meetings since Sunday and is scheduled to soon decide on a series of acts, may vote on a proposal authorizing the State Council to adjust or remove the tax on interest income, which could prompt investors to stockpile their money in bank savings accounts rather than buy stocks.

The vote is likely to take place on Friday, the last day of meetings, according to sources close to the NPC and the central government. 

"If the government is authorized, I believe it may cut the tax on interest income to 10 percent from the original 20 percent," said Li Zhikun, an analyst with China Jianyin Investment Securities Co Ltd. Li added that the central bank might also hike the interest rate on lending by 18 basis points at the same time.

"The market rumor saying that the central government will increase the interest rate on depositing by as much as 54 basis points is baseless," Li said. "I believe to cut or adjust the tax on interest income is a foreseeable near-term measure instead."

According to Li, cancelling the tax will be equal to a 76.5 basis point hike to the interest rate.

The main stock index has dropped 290 points since Friday, when news started to spread.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,941.081 points yesterday, its first drop below 4,000 points since June 12, after sinking as much as 4.38 percent at one point in the day. On Friday, it tumbled 3.29 percent.

Statistics from China Depository and Clearing Co Ltd showed the number of new A-share investment accounts being opened daily slipped to a two-month low of 160,104 on Thursday, suggesting the amount of new money pouring into stocks from individual investors might decrease.

Turnover of Shanghai A shares dropped to 139.2 billion yuan - the smallest since early April - from Friday´s 165.5 billion yuan, as investors pull out of the market.

(China Daily 06/26/2007 page13)

  

 


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